Go to Slate Political Futures
While I certainly trust gamblers more than pundits, this democratic presidential futures chart seems about as in tune with public sentiment as President Bush is on Iraq. My problem stems from the fact that, despite reading and talking politics all day everyday, I don't think I have ever come across an outright Hillary supporter. Sure, she has a huge team of loyalists leftover from her husband's presidency, and there are plenty of people like me who find her plenty smart and would likely vote for her over any of the GOP candidates. But it is near impossible to find non-insiders ecstatic about the Senator from New York. On the flip side, finding a Democrat with a negative opinion of the former first lady is about as difficult as finding a Republican with an unhealthy infatuation with Ronald Reagan. They are both a dime a dozen.
So what gives? While I firmly believe in statistics (which is how I know Bush lost both the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections) and do not dispute the polling and oddsmakers which both suggest Hillary is the likely Democratic presidential nominee, my gut tells me that the numbers are measuring name recognition instead of any inclination to vote for Hillary. Here are some factors to consider:
1. Americans lack political knowledge. This basic nine question Pew News IQ Quiz substantiates this claim. For example, barely half of all Americans know the approximate number of US troops killed in Iraq despite the recent uptick in media coverage due to Memorial Day and the 2,973 (people killed on 9/11), 3,000 and 3,500 killed milestones. Hell, only 73% of participants correctly answered the question below. And yet, the establishment has already handed Hillary the nomination. This seems doubly foolish in the “Macaca” era.
2. The importance of name recognition, especially this far out, should not be underestimated. While Americans are, as a whole, not the most informed, we certainly don't like to appear stupid so we tend toward the herd mentality. There is safety in numbers which helps explain the surge in flock size at radical Christian churches despite their messages of crazy and hate.
It is also the natural tendency of humans to gravitate towards the familiar when we don't something. Note the difference (at right) between the results in recall recognition when questions are posed as open-ended versus multiple choice. Hence my contention that Hillary's lead is mainly reflective of her high name recognition.
Under normal circumstances this would be a great advantage as name recognition is half the battle. Just ask Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd who have about as much national name recognition as the Downing Street Memos.
Gallup Website
3. While name recognition is important, even necessary, to winning the Democratic nomination and presidency, it fails to account for whether people actually like or dislike the person in question. And when it comes to Hillary, many people know her and dislike her. And whether this is justified or the result of 15 years of smearing from the right wing noise machine is really irrelevant. The fact is that a lot of Americans on both sides of the political spectrum do not like Hillary.
Note that while Hillary's numbers drastically improve when Republicans are filtered out of the equation, her unfavorable rating is still 39% and 50% higher than Obama and Edwards respectively.
As the Democratic primaries get closer, the field will narrow and the media attention on the remaining candidates will be greater, thereby narrowing Hillary's name recognition advantage. And unless Hillary succeeds in narrowing her unfavorable gap, she will not win her party's nomination, never mind the presidency. Hillary is clearly aware of these numbers too which is why she is constantly stating that there is little difference between the Democratic candidates. She wants name recognition to be the deciding factor.
Again, based completely on my own anecdotal evidence I think her negatives are too much to overcome. Why? Because I have yet to meet any non-insider, non-pundit, excited about her campaign. Meanwhile, Obama might as well be Bono on the campaign trail with the huge crowds he attracts of diehard followers that view him almost mythically. And while Edwards may never generate the groundswell of support that Obama has, his populist, anti-corporatist message, continues to win over progressives, unionists and even the heartland. I've noticed that Edwards is the favorite among people I consider politically informed. Of course, Edwards's message has also earned him the wrath of the mainstream corporate media which certainly hurts his chances. Finally, my math abilities are not good enough to count the number of times I've heard someone wish for Al Gore to join the race.
By comparison, the number of times I've heard anyone refer to Hillary as a rock star, claim excitement by her proposals and message or talk about her in wishful terms is a big fat zero. Anecdotal evidence for sure, but statistically telling, nonetheless.